The domestic steel processing industry as a whole has fluctuated and declined, with a significant decrease in the price of long steel products. The steel processing market has entered a low season of demand, with construction hindered by high temperatures and heavy rain, and an increase in summer breaks for the manufacturing industry, resulting in a significant decrease in demand; Steel futures are weak and difficult to change, hitting a new low since listing; The price of imported iron ore has significantly declined, and the cost support for steel mills has weakened, resulting in a continuous decline in steel prices.
In the second half of the year, with the gradual introduction of reserve requirement ratio cuts and fine-tuning stimulus policies by the central bank, macroeconomic positive news boosted steel prices, and the decline in the spot market slowed down. As of the 24th, the market price of tertiary rebar in Shandong Province was 3040-3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from the end of last month; The price of thick specification hot coils is 3300-3350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the end of last month.
The price of medium board is 3340-3400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40-50 yuan/ton from the end of last month; The price of H-shaped steel for small and medium-sized specifications is 3080-3110 yuan/ton, while the price of ordinary large-sized specifications is 3030-3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70-100 yuan/ton from the end of last month; The price of 45 # steel ranges from 3360-3380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the end of last month.
Leading indicators of economic operation: In May, there was a slight rebound in industrial added value and PMI, and the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed. However, it remains to be confirmed whether the real economy has truly emerged from the trough; The real estate industry is facing significant downward pressure, and the growth rate of steel demand is slowing down, making it difficult to improve in the later stage.
The improvement in profitability of steel mills has led to an increase in resumption of production. In early June, crude steel production reached a new high, but supply pressure remains severe. The social inventory of steel has been declining for the 16th consecutive week, but the speed of destocking has slowed down; Imported ore fell below the previous low point, fluctuating slightly around $90/ton; The leading steel mills are cautious about the future market and prices are stable with a slight decrease; It is expected that the domestic steel market will form a bottom shape in July.
